News 
May 26, 2025 
8 min. 
The $120K Bitcoin dream remains elusive, even as Bitcoin (BTC) rises 3.38% over the past 12 hours in a modest attempt to recover from Friday’s sharp correction. Both technical indicators and on-chain data suggest that a return to the all-time high of $111,959.50, or even a breakout toward $120,000, is unlikely in the near term.
Why Bitcoin’s Climb to $120K May Be Out of Reach for Now
While Bitcoin (BTC) may be on a long-term path toward setting a new all-time high above $120,000, current market dynamics suggest that such a rally isn’t imminent. Despite a broadly bullish outlook on higher timeframes, the short-term picture remains weighed down by several bearish indicators.
Technical charts point to a possible reversal or correction in the near term. Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals that large holders (wallets containing between 100,000 and 1 million BTC) are steadily reducing their positions. Additionally, clear signs of profit-taking activity on the blockchain are adding further pressure to upward momentum.
Together, these signals suggest Bitcoin is likely to face a temporary pause or even a short-term pullback before any renewed push toward the $120K mark can materialize.
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Bitcoin Struggles Above $110K as Weekly Chart Signals Potential Correction
Bitcoin’s weekly performance is flashing warning signs, with a key technical pattern hinting that the recent bullish momentum may be losing steam. Although BTC briefly broke above its previous all-time high of $110,000, it failed to close the week above that level. This move forms what analysts call a swing failure pattern, which often indicates weakening market confidence near major resistance zones.
Momentum indicators are also painting a cautious picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a lower high, diverging from Bitcoin’s higher price peak. This bearish divergence highlights a disconnect between price action and buying strength, often a precursor to a short-term reversal or broader pullback.
Zooming out, Bitcoin’s 43% rally from $76,555 to $110,000 stands out as a significant move in the higher timeframes. However, technical signals suggest the asset may be overextended. If history is any guide, a retracement toward the fair value midpoint of this rally (approximately $93,024) could be in play. A drop below this level would place BTC in what’s known as “discount territory”, where institutional buyers and whales often begin accumulating positions.
As the market digests these developments, traders and long-term investors alike may want to keep a close eye on how BTC behaves near this critical price zone.
Bitcoin Whales Trim Holdings, Adding Pressure at Key Resistance
Fresh on-chain data from Santiment reveals that major Bitcoin holders (wallets containing between 100,000 and 1 million BTC) are beginning to offload their positions, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
Between February and April 2025, these large-scale investors significantly increased their holdings, rising from 647,730 BTC to 679,630 BTC during a period when Bitcoin prices were consolidating in the $75,000 to $88,000 range. This wave of accumulation coincided with a relatively stable market phase, often interpreted as a strategic entry point by experienced players.
However, recent activity shows a clear trend reversal. These so-called “smart money” entities are now selling into the market, creating additional selling pressure as BTC trades just below a major resistance level. Their distribution suggests waning confidence in the near-term upside, which could limit Bitcoin’s ability to break higher in the coming sessions.
Profit-Taking Intensifies as Bitcoin Stalls Below Record High
Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to maintain momentum as it consolidates just below its previous all-time high, with increasing evidence that profit-taking is putting downward pressure on price action.
Historically, when BTC nears a prior peak or establishes a new high in close proximity, investors who entered earlier in the cycle tend to secure profits. That pattern appears to be repeating now, with a wave of selling activity emerging as BTC trades below its record levels.
According to on-chain analytics from the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator, realized gains have surged significantly. The NPL value jumped from $2.3 billion to $9.18 billion during Bitcoin’s climb from $82,000 to $111,000. Past data shows such sharp increases in realized profits often align with local market tops, as holders seize the opportunity to cash out.
This trend is further supported by recent whale activity, which shows large holders trimming their positions. Combined with a weakening weekly chart structure, the current market setup suggests a potential correction may be on the horizon.
Without a fresh influx of capital or renewed buying pressure, Bitcoin’s path to $120,000 appears increasingly uncertain.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Why is Bitcoin unlikely to reach $120,000 in the near term?
Current market signals point to a potential pause in Bitcoin’s upward momentum. Technical indicators and on-chain metrics reveal signs of exhaustion, including profit-taking among investors and declining balances held by large wallets. These developments suggest that a short-term correction may be more likely than a breakout.
What technical indicators are pointing to a possible reversal?
Bitcoin’s weekly chart is flashing multiple red flags. A bearish swing failure pattern has emerged, marked by BTC’s inability to close above its previous all-time high. Additionally, a bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that momentum is not keeping pace with rising prices — a classic setup for a pullback.
Where could Bitcoin find support if a correction occurs?
Analysts are eyeing the midpoint of Bitcoin’s recent 43% rally — from $76,555 to $110,000 — as a potential support zone. This level, around $93,024, is considered the fair value of the move. If BTC dips below this point, it would enter what’s known as “discount territory,” a range often targeted by institutional buyers and whales for accumulation.
